COVID - 19: End Game

In Steven Covey's well-known Seven Habits of Highly Effective People, he advocated "keep the end in mind." Given the complexity of the current pandemic, I thought it might be helpful to think about the end game.

If the virus continues to spread, even at a low rate, it seems highly likely that everyone gets it. Only if its transmission completely goes away by isolation does the virus drop out of existence. Given the global connectedness, the past transmission rates, the current populations affected, it is difficult for me to see how this does not result in all of us getting the virus. But this full contagion has a variety of possible outcomes.

First, it is possible that a much greater number than we realize have already contracted this virus and are effectively immune to its impact. This group of people either have genetic characteristics or attained antibodies that protect them from its often horrendous impact. If this number is sufficient, then it is possible that we may be able to trace a solution for the rest of us that would allow full exposure. It seems this solution is months away at earliest.

Second, it is possible that treatments may be developed that allow for a diminishing of the impact of the virus on the body. It appears that the combo of an anti-malarial and a z-pack could be effective as an immuno-suppressant as the worst effects come from the body's own attack on the virus. This solution would seem to be the earliest that science can develop in terms of months away.

Third, it is possible that a vaccine is developed at a faster rate than the next few years - given the history we have of vaccine development and the urgency at hand. In that way, we could simply generate global supplies of vaccines and dramatically lower the fatality rate.

In all cases, it appears that we need more time. To gain this required time, we have to practice three simple steps: 1) social distance, 2) washing our hands and 3) not touching our faces. The economic impact would seem likely to fade as these social practices are implemented. The practice of non-activity cannot go on for prolonged periods as people develop "safe work" practices that do not impair the economy.

Clearly the last parts of the economy to heal were the first to go: travel and luxury goods. These areas are trading at low prices, especially when accompanied with debt.